The race of who occupies Alagbaka has earnestly begun. This is not unexpected as the people of Ondo State usually begin preparation for the next election as soon as one is over. This characteristic is what makes the political chess game of Ondo State a unique one. While keeping your next move secret, you are constantly check-mating every other king and queen including pawns who have the potential of becoming royals.

This race, though in its earliest stage, is already gathering speed at an ever increasing rate. It is moving at this pace, apparently, because of the use of social media. Various groups, organisations and individuals have taken to the social media, Facebook especially, to create awareness and drum support for candidates they wish to see enter into the race. Even for those potential governorship aspirants that their body languages are saying otherwise at the moment. 

This forthcoming election promises to be different from the previous elections as the landscape has greatly changed in recent years which has resulted in the birth of numerous gladiators and a few rebels. These gladiators and rebels are the most powerful components of the power blocs that exist in the politicosphere of Ondo State. 

Ondo State; the sunshine state which Late Agagu quizzed during his reelection campaign if her Sun will shine again is a place where the unpredictable happens and no one is bothered. We are all used to the uncertainty of outcomes of events in the state. It is the above fact which had reigned supreme in times that have made it possible for no one to predict what will happen in #Ondo2016. 

You want to say it is too early? No! It is not. If not the candidate, at least, the party that will carry the day should have been known, if not 100% but at a very comforting percentage of 51%. As of now, it is unpredictable. 

In 2006, during the preparation for the 2007 general elections, people of Ondo State already knew they do not want the sitting governor again even if it will put them in the opposition. At least they were in the opposition at the return of democracy. Unlike the 2007 and 2013 elections, the government will change even if the people want the government to continue. I wonder if this will ever be the wish of the good people of Ondo State (this is a story for another day). 

This unique election which promises to be the best ever in the history of the state will be determined by various factors which we would all look into as the journey progresses. Together, we will cross check these things that seem to be the prevailing factors which have won elections in time past and those (people) that seems to have indirectly registered their intent, one way or the other. 

Just like every other elective position every other setting in Nigeria, the unconstitutional but conventional rule of rotation has always been a key factor. We all argue that the rotation is bad as it won't help the emergence of the best minds and hands, yet we have always adhered to this rotation. 

Since the return to demoncratic rule which was actually meant to be democratic, Ondo State has had 3 governors and their emergence satisfied the rotation rule (we can argue against one). It will interest you to know that the rotational rule has not catered for the yearnings of some groups; both majority and minority. 

In 1999, a secondary school teacher from the Northern Senatorial district was elected governor on the platform of Alliance for Democracy. Late Chief Adebayo Adefarati (Baba Peace) was deputised by a barrister from the Southern Senatorial district of the state. In 2003, a doctor of Geology, who had served as a minister was elected governor. Governor Olusegun Agagu was deputised by a veteran administrator, Oluwateru. Oluwateru, a former local government administrator was from Akure of the Ondo Central Senatorial district. 

During the election, a medical doctor who initiated the millennium free eye surgery of the Olusegun Agagu administration and who had served President Obasanjo as a minister of Urban Development was elected governor. 

Dr Mimiko, the present governor who is from Ondo town in the Central Senatorial district was not sworn in until February 24 because the umpire of the 2007 election was biased. Without doubt, the conventional rotation has played it role in the emergence of Ondo State governors in the past years, the 2016 guber polls seems dicey. 

It remains to be seen if this factor will be the major determinant in this race. I am certain no singular factor will be the preponderant than the other as every other 'enzyme' will work in tandem with one another. 

Since all the Senatorial districts have all produced the governor at different times, do you think the argument for rotation is still valid? 

Share your opinion with us through the comment box. Thank you for reading.